Notre Dame Fighting Irish Climb to No. 3 in ESPN FPI Rankings

Notre Dame Fighting Irish surged to No. 3 in ESPN's 2026 Football Power Index, posting a 74.4% probability of reaching the College Football Playoff and setting the stage for a pivotal game against Wisconsin on 2026-09-06.

How did the Irish achieve a No. 3 FPI ranking?

ESPN’s FPI model simulates thousands of neutral‑site matchups, measuring expected point margins. The Irish posted a projected win‑loss record of 10.7‑1.3, just behind Ohio State (1st) and Texas (2nd). Their win‑out percentage—32.7%—topped the nation, meaning the Irish were the most likely to win every remaining game in the simulations.

What does the ranking mean for Notre Dame’s playoff odds?

With a 74.4% playoff percentage, the Irish sit second only to Ohio State’s 75.7% in the FPI’s CFP outlook. Their title‑game odds rank third, trailing Texas and Ohio State. The model also gave Notre Dame a perfect 100% chance of reaching at least six wins, reinforcing the belief that the season hinges on three non‑conference foes: Miami, BYU and SMU.

Which opponents pose the biggest challenges?

Three of Notre Dame’s 2026 opponents appear in ESPN’s Top 25 FPI list: Miami (No. 7), BYU (No. 20) and SMU (No. 24). The Irish also face Wisconsin (No. 43) on Sept. 6, a game that could test their defensive depth after a strong start. Earlier, the Irish beat Boston College 31‑24, improving their record to 2‑0 and keeping their bowl‑eligibility streak alive.

How does the Irish schedule influence their FPI standing?

Notre Dame’s schedule blends high‑ranked foes with lower‑tier teams. After Wisconsin, they travel to North Carolina (No. 42) and host Purdue (No. 71). The mix of Power Five and Group of Five opponents helped the FPI model assign a solid projected record while still rewarding the Irish for beating ranked teams when they do.

What’s next for the Fighting Irish?

The next test arrives on 2026-09-06 when the Irish meet the Wisconsin Badgers in Madison. A win could push the Irish closer to the top‑two CFP spots, while a loss would likely drop them behind Texas and Ohio State in the final rankings. Coach Marcus Freeman will lean on quarterback Michael Penix Jr.’s arm and the revamped defensive line to secure the victory.

How does this ranking compare historically?

Notre Dame has been bowl‑eligible every season since 2000, except for four off‑years (2001, 2003, 2007, 2016). The No. 3 FPI spot marks the highest placement since the model’s inception, reflecting the program’s consistent recruiting success and strategic scheduling under Freeman’s leadership.

Why should fans pay attention to the FPI?

The FPI offers a data‑driven glimpse into how the Irish stack up against the nation’s elite. While it isn’t the final word on rankings, a top‑three finish signals strong odds for a New Year’s Six bowl invitation and keeps Notre Dame in the conversation for a national championship run.